Scenario planning resources

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Information resources on:

• Systems thinking approach to scenario planning
• Original scenario planning concepts
• Guides & Reports

Scenario planning process

How to whittle the virtually infinite number of possible futures that could be described down to a manageable three or four plots that will shed the most light on possible (Exodus) futures?

Pre-determined elements

Seeking wisdom for whittling the virtually infinite number of possible futures that could be described, down to a manageable three or four plots that will shed the most light on our futures, in the context of a scenario planning can be done by survey. So I did a survey and asked people to respond. What key forces seem inevitable or pre-determined?

Exodus key factors

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This key factor brainstorming revolves around identifying driving forces and key trends for an Exodus from the War-and-Work Machine scenario planning to illustrate the scenario planning process/choreography.

Deductive scenario logics

On the deductive path, we prioritise the Key Factors in order to find the two most critical uncertainties. Those then are placed in a 2×2 scenario matrix. The rest of the key forces come back when fleshing out the scenarios in rich compelling plots.

Inductive scenario logics

The inductive approach to scenario planning is very unsystematic and calls for a degree of creativity and imagination.

Humans planning illusionary scenarios

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A group of analysts generate scenario planning simulation games for policy makers. The games combine known facts about the future, such as in environmental, demographics, geography, military, political, social, and science issues, industrial information, and (limiting) resources such as mineral reserves, with plausible alternative trends which are key driving forces of the games.