Scenario planning resources
October 5, 2009 § Leave a comment
Scenario planning process
September 26, 2009 § 1 Comment
How to whittle the virtually infinite number of possible futures that could be described down to a manageable three or four plots that will shed the most light on possible (Exodus) futures?
Determine decision focus, brainstorm key factors, pre-determine elements and apply systems thinking to discover the name of our game and write compelling stories
September 25, 2009 § 2 Comments
Seeking wisdom for whittling the virtually infinite number of possible futures that could be described, down to a manageable three or four plots that will shed the most light on our futures, in the context of a scenario planning can be done by survey. So I did a survey and asked people to respond. What key forces seem inevitable or pre-determined?
Results of my survey?
Exodus key factors
September 9, 2009 § 4 Comments
This key factor brainstorming revolves around identifying driving forces and key trends for an Exodus from the War-and-Work Machine scenario planning to illustrate the scenario planning process/choreography.
What are the possible futures for the global system if and when a world-wide Exodus takes place?
Deductive scenario logics
September 7, 2009 § 2 Comments
On the deductive path, we prioritise the Key Factors in order to find the two most critical uncertainties. Those then are placed in a 2×2 scenario matrix. The rest of the key forces come back when fleshing out the scenarios in rich compelling plots.
Inductive scenario logics
September 7, 2009 § 4 Comments
The inductive approach to scenario planning is very unsystematic and calls for a degree of creativity and imagination.
Brainstorm different changes and/or official future deviations …
Humans planning illusionary scenarios
June 4, 2006 § 3 Comments
A group of analysts generate scenario planning simulation games for policy makers. The games combine known facts about the future, such as in environmental, demographics, geography, military, political, social, and science issues, industrial information, and (limiting) resources such as mineral reserves, with plausible alternative trends which are key driving forces of the games.
It isn’t real. It is make-believe, pretend. If it isn’t real then why play these games?