Is Moscow preparing for some kind of “strategic event”?

September 6, 2010 § 3 Comments

Photo of a Soviet Navy ballistic missile subma...

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As these words are written, Moscow is preparing for some kind of “strategic event.” The Russian navy has begun to aggressively hunt American, French and British ballistic missile submarines.

Time may be running short.

via What’s Past is Prologue | FINANCIAL SENSE.

Thank you JD. Using universal emotions for validation, and public knowledge for verification …

Is past prologue?

Between 2000 and 2007, president Vladimir Putin’s policies and the high energy prices ~ Russia’s energy companies are state-controlled ~ turned Russia’s $160 billion debt from 2000 into $400 billion in currency reserves and surplus funds in 2007.

When a human suddenly pays off their debt and has money to spend, what happens? It gives female energy independence, likely followed by growing assertiveness when feeling powered-over by others. And it gives male energy confidence, and more means to impose and expand their powering-over those that have-not.

Russia did pay off its sovereign debts to the world. And it did become more assertive. There were several incidents. And Russia did increase it’s spending in many sectors, including defense. The potential for imposing and expansion exists.

Is it likely that Russia wants to expand?

In the past we had the USSR. Meaning, Russia’s neighbors have been in a submissive relationship with Russia. When the increased capacity for manipulation that energy brings leads to the enrichment of the human environment, because exploitable resources take on new value, the personality develops attachments to that which it has altered.

The feeling state that ownership brings moved Russia’s male energy from a state of enjoyable energy into the acceptance of its neighbours in its domain. True male energy love, for its submissive harem. The relationship is now over, but Russia is likely to still harbor strong attachments to its neighbors, wanting to dominate them again. But what will the world think if it makes moves in that direction?

Military strategy

According to STRATFOR in 2007:

Russia and China are both in the process of fielding a new class of ballistic missile submarines. These submarines, longtime prudent investments for states with nuclear weapons, are becoming an essential — and ultimately, the only — option for a survivable nuclear deterrent.

Analysis

For the better part of a decade, four nations have maintained a regularly patrolling strategic deterrent at sea: the United States, France, the United Kingdom and Israel (whose use of nuclear warheads mounted on cruise missiles aboard its three Dolphin-class submarines is an open secret). However, that decade also has seen China and Russia complete nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) programs. This is particularly important because diving beneath the ocean’s surface is quickly becoming the only way to hide.

And according to “What’s Past is Prologue”, “The Russian navy has begun to aggressively hunt American, French and British ballistic missile submarines.

And what will the neighbours think?

They have been in that relationship too. On the other end. And they have tasted freedom from domination. Freedom to follow their own inner identity. Wholeness. Euforia. Twice. First from the feudal system, then from a communist system. What scenario’s may unfold?

Sure, the situation did not improve economically ~ in a global market, their male energy didn’t stand a chance ~ but that’s well worth the price of NOT being dominated? What if neighbours’ female energy roots now that firmness is required? What if it makes a stand, for the living balance?

Or is there a longing for the old status quo, for a strong leader, grounded in habitual submissiveness and direct domination by military threat? That system will be unbalanced too, as it has been before in the USSR.

Will a more indirect domination game being played? The world financial crisis may have actually expanded opportunities for Russia among it’s neighbours. Bailing out governments and purchasing “distressed assets”. The price for survival will be “returning to the fold”?

Is the domination energy of Russia building up further?

In 2009, Russia sank into a deep economic crisis, sparked by the world’s financial state. Does it no longer have “the means”?

Russia did it’s major investments in defense in 2007 and 2008. And it takes a couple of years for the manifestation of the military strategy to appear.

The Kremlin’s core foreign-policy objectives are finding diplomatic pressure points that make Russia a more indispensable global player, and consolidating political and economic influence over its neighbors. That doesn’t require much funding. Russia can cast vetoes at the United Nations. Dealing with other countries can give Russia bargaining leverage with the United States on other strategic issues. I’m thinking that includes missile defense or NATO expansion.

They’re doing fine!

Effects of prolonged economic crisis

According to the above, Russia could clearly be in an objective male energy state. This is an unbalanced state, and will likely cause Russia to continue to prioritize core political and economic goals over relationships with foreign investors and governments.

But not in the case of emergency. With the current prolonged economic crisis, the following two worst-case scenario’s can unfold (that do not necessarily exclude one another):

  • Russia is pushed to the point of depletion or economic collapse. And you just don’t carry much political clout when you are asking (begging) for money.
  • More liberal figures in Moscow’s elite appear, and also more hardliners. Internal polarisation and tension builds up.

In both scenario’s Russia’s foreign policy might take more aggressive and irrelevant directions. I wouldn’t call that a “strategic event”. More like a “desparate action” or “instant gratification”. And others, following a similar line of subjective reasoning, and have chosen to believe in pre-emptive violence memes …

Anyway

This is all projection based on universal emotions and publicly available knowledge. Lots needs to be verified more. Feedback is very welcome. Got any news on what’s really happening now?

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§ 3 Responses to Is Moscow preparing for some kind of “strategic event”?

  • patrice says:

    Dmitry Medvedev is the current president of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin is ‘his’ prime minister. Might not matter too much for the decision-making process, but looks a bit sloppy to make such an inversion in the opening sentence…

  • Hi Patrice,

    Thank you. I have added, “In the past …” to the opening sentence. Though I think that the rest of the sentence makes clear that is the case.

    🙂 Nynke

  • Putin became acting President on 31 December 1999, when president Boris Yeltsin resigned, and then Putin won the 2000 presidential election. In 2004 he was re-elected for a second term lasting until 7 May 2008.

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