Deductive scenario logics

September 7, 2009 § 2 Comments

On the deductive path, we prioritise the Key Factors in order to find the two most critical uncertainties. Those then are placed in a 2×2 scenario matrix. The rest of the key forces come back when fleshing out the scenarios in rich compelling plots.


In this matrix I placed ethnic opposite economic because of economical globalisation, and ethnic being very localised and context dependent. Plus that ethnic spirit is often a cause of war, and economy is least likely to balance itself more “fairly” with more war happening.

Many more matrices can be made with the key factors that were gathered. Alternatively or additionally, inductive scenario logics can be used.


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