Deductive scenario logics

September 7, 2009 § 2 Comments

On the deductive path, we prioritise the Key Factors in order to find the two most critical uncertainties. Those then are placed in a 2×2 scenario matrix. The rest of the key forces come back when fleshing out the scenarios in rich compelling plots.

Example

In this matrix I placed ethnic opposite economic because of economical globalisation, and ethnic being very localised and context dependent. Plus that ethnic spirit is often a cause of war, and economy is least likely to balance itself more “fairly” with more war happening.

Many more matrices can be made with the key factors that were gathered. Alternatively or additionally, inductive scenario logics can be used.

Advertisements

Tagged: ,

§ 2 Responses to Deductive scenario logics

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

What’s this?

You are currently reading Deductive scenario logics at Serendipity.

meta