Deductive scenario logics
September 7, 2009 § 2 Comments
On the deductive path, we prioritise the Key Factors in order to find the two most critical uncertainties. Those then are placed in a 2×2 scenario matrix. The rest of the key forces come back when fleshing out the scenarios in rich compelling plots.
In this matrix I placed ethnic opposite economic because of economical globalisation, and ethnic being very localised and context dependent. Plus that ethnic spirit is often a cause of war, and economy is least likely to balance itself more “fairly” with more war happening.